Remember a few months ago when ad execs were publicly hoping the threat of adblockers might not be as bad as we thought? There were theories that ad-blocking might be “self limiting” and may naturally slow on it’s own.
As it turns out, that was wishful thinking.
Last year’s ad blocking “plateau”
Just last August, the IAB reported that use of adblockers had potentially peaked. That forecast was issued on the back of a single quarterly decline in the UK, which showed a drop from 21.7% to 21.2% reported adblock use.
While the decline wasn’t significant enough to constitute a “reversal”, it was enough to raise a few hopes that adblocking just might have plateaued.
That same month, statistics out of Germany’s Online-Vermarkterkreis (OVK) were even more promising. They showed a consistent decline over two quarters from a peak of 21.5% to 19.4% at the end of Q2 2016.
The “plateau” didn’t last. Growth continues…
It’s now six months later and the fresh data is in: PageFair’s excellent 2017 Adblock Report shows that despite a slowdown in plug-in installs, growth resumed in the second half of 2016.
PageFair estimates that by the end of 2016 there were a total of 50 million active desktop adblock installs. That makes for nearly 100% growth in just two years.
Overall desktop web-traffic continues to decline in the US as the shift to mobile continues. Despite that decline in overall desktop traffic, the number of desktop adblock installs continues to rise.
If there’s a bright note anywhere in PageFair’s data, it’s that growth in active desktop adblock installs does appear to be slowing.
But is the problem worse than we think?
As good as PageFair’s report is, there may be reason to believe their data underestimates install growth:
For those who have read my previous posts on this issue, I continue to have questions about PageFair’s statistical methodology. PageFair’s desktop ad-blocking estimates are centered on EasyList filter downloads. However, EasyList itself is often forked and mirrored. As EasyList becomes less universal among ad-blocking plugins, EasyList’s analytics data may be a correspondingly less accurate metric for overall ad blocker installs.
While the methodology does attempt to account for plugins other than Adblock Plus, it’s still dependent on EasyList’s analytics data. Any ad blockers using a separate fork of EasyList’s data would seemingly go uncounted.
Case in point: The AdGuard ad-blocking plugin has been installed nearly 18 million times. But AdGuard’s filter-list is a separately served fork of EasyList. There are other similar examples. I maintain that what may appear to be slowing desktop installs may be partially due to a migration of users to other such “non-EasyList” plugins. Or a migration to plugins which don’t download EasyList from the same source.
Is PageFair’s supposedly slowing rate of adblock-plugin install growth really just illustrating a slow migration away from centralized EasyList downloads?
Aside from consulting a trusty Magic 8 Ball, there’s no way to know.
Even if PageFair’s data is correct about the slowing rate of growth, ad blocking clearly continued to become a bigger problem by the end of 2016.
In 2017, publishers will continue to seek more advanced technological solutions to confront ad-blockers. As such, 2017 is already shaping up to be the year of “ad recovery” and “ad replacement“.
2016’s strategy of “blocking adblockers” is giving way to an exciting class of next-gen solutions. Adblock circumvention solutions like ReviveAds are successfully pushing ads past adblockers and upping the ante in what is becoming the Internet’s biggest arms race.
Stay tuned for an upcoming post on the ad reinsertion battleground and how advertisers and publishers are beginning to circumvent adblockers entirely.
Get your popcorn. This fight is just getting started.